At Long Last, It Is The Mid-Term Election *Open Thread*


Thank heavens, it is finally here. The last big vote of Obama’s tenure in our White House. The outcome of this one may well be a doozy, for both Democrats and Republicans. It is the Republicans last chance to pull back the reins on Obama’s lawless “pen and phone” actions. We can only hope that there is a big turnover, enough to be able to overturn possible Obama vetoes.

Hey, a girl can hope, can’t she?

And since this is Election Day, I wanted to share with you the last projections from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Many of you know Professor Sabato from the University of Virginia (my partner’s alma mater, Wahoo Wah, Wahoo Wah!).  Below are Sabato’s projections, tables, and maps for the races overall, with breakdowns for the House, Senate, and Governors’ races.

Table 1: 2014 Crystal Ball projected totals

As is our longstanding tradition, we at the Crystal Ball attempt to call every election for House, Senate, governor, and in presidential years, the Electoral College. After studying these campaigns for months or years, we believe we owe you our best judgment about the outcomes. While we’re proud of our overall record over the years, we always miss a few calls, sometimes more than a few. Toss-ups are vexing, and the massive amounts of intelligence from polls, analysts, campaign managers, and party officials can be exceptionally contradictory. Not many of our sources have ever attempted to mislead us; they sincerely believe this candidate or that one will win — and smart people on the other side of the aisle are equally convinced their nominees will triumph.


With that, here are our final calls for 2014’s 507 Senate, gubernatorial, and House contests. We have offered our picks in 498 of these races already. Here are the final nine picks:


Map 1: Final Crystal Ball Senate ratings

Table 2: Final Crystal Ball Senate ratings changes

The Kansas race between embattled, weak Sen. Pat Roberts (R) and independent Greg Orman is perhaps the closest, most difficult-to-predict Senate race in the country. However, at the end of the day, a Republican has not lost a Senate race in this state since 1932. It may happen, but we just can’t pull the trigger and predict it. LEANS REPUBLICAN

We’ve been calling Georgia and Louisiana “Toss-up/Leans Runoff” in recent weeks because we expected both to eventually go to runoffs. Louisiana will, and Georgia might, but we now believe Republicans are favored to eventually win both. So we’re just going to call both LEANS REPUBLICAN going into Election Day: If both do in fact go to runoffs, then the Leans GOP ratings will apply, at least initially, to the overtime contests.

Those are the only changes for the Senate this week. For explanations of our ratings in the other most competitive races, see our recent Senate analysis.


Map 2: Final Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings

Table 3: Final Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings changes

That is the word from Professor Sabato and his team. If you wish to read the entire piece, please click HERE for his Crystal Ball projections. It will be interesting to see how the results stack up against the projections.

While waiting to vote this morning – #35 at 9:45, the man behind me commented on me brining a book (the line was maybe 2 people, and one of those was my partner). He said, “hey, it’s the Mid-terms!” Considering what is on the line, though, the mid-terms, like all elections, matters. The importance is summed up beautifully in this video, provided by Helenk:

Yep. It matters alright. Today is all about the Election (though you can comment on whatever). As news comes in for your states, I would love to hear what the results are in the Comments below. I am sure others here would, too. As breaking news comes in, I will try and get updates in, but please feel free to add them below. Thanks!

It’s been some ride, hasn’t it? I am sure there will be some bumps tonight, but I cannot think of a better group I’d want to go through this with than all of y’all!

Okay – fingers crossed! And this is your Election Day Open Thread!


51 Responses to “At Long Last, It Is The Mid-Term Election *Open Thread*”

  1. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    Good grief, I think Biden’s been hanging out with his drug-using son too much:

  2. kenoshamarge Says:

    Republican Women Set To Make History!

    Any bets on the enthusiasm by the media and the feminists for this? You know how they love to talk about historical elections. Or not!

    • Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

      Oh, yeah – we have already seen how quickly they turn on Republican women anyway – Condi Rice is a case in point (and I admit, I was like that, too. Now I regret that I did not give her the respect you deserved when she was SoS, and regret not listening to her more then because I was a narrow-minded Dem who bought the line abt people of color being Republicans. Stupid.).

      We like Love (and have supported her). Sure hope she, and Martha McSally, make it.

      As it is, there is a huge failure by these “feminists” to acknowledge the good Republican women, like our governor, Nikki Haley, or Susanna Martinez, Gov. of New Mexico, or Jan Brewer, Gov. of AZ., and on it goes. Talk abt selective blindness…

  3. kenoshamarge Says:

    Oh and speaking of women in politics…

    CNN Calls out Davis, Grimes for Most Shocking and Dishonest Ads of 2014

    • Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

      Good for Tapper for covering this. Glad he is continuing his good journalism even if he is on CNN…

  4. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    I have a friend at Facebook who lives in Wisconsin. She is reporting instances of voter fraud going on in your state, and said I could share them with you. She also said this: “…tell them that these stories were being reported on 1130 WISN am radio. I also heard stories of votes being stolen in Racine and Kenosha.”


    Here is what she reported: “…A man in Milwaukee area went to vote, was told he had just voted. The guy was walking out the door at the same time he had walked in; in fact he passed the guy. He ran outside saw the guy get into a black SUV with other black guys, license plate from Chicago. He reported the plate number and descriptions. Then got a provisional ballot to vote. WTF????”

    “More reports of votes being outright stolen! In Shorewood, WI a light blue van with IL plates and a church name on the side, 15 people in the van, STOLE the votes of a couple and others. Van was still there and couple caught pics of the van.”

    WOW. There really are no depths to which they won’t sink…

    • kenoshamarge Says:

      Thanks for the info Rev. I have no doubt that there is voter fraud going on here as well as in every other state in the union. This in spite of the left and their media mouthpieces insisting that there is not problem with voter fraud. There is a problem. There always has been a problem and there always will be a problem. The thing is in the past the media was there to report it. Now – they are part of the corruption.

      • Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

        Oh, I am sure it is going on all over, too. We have seen cases prosecuted (of Dems) in places like Ohio, and some other Midwestern States, with some fairly high up Dems doing the fraud. It is truly remarkable that people are willing to engage in this kind of behavior, and with such disregard for any semblance of ethics and morals.

        Sad what has happened to our nation. I so hope we can get her back on track…

  5. HELENK3 Says:

    White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest says regardless of the outcome of midterm elections, President Obama ‘will continue to aggressively use his executive authority’ – @i88schwartz

  6. HELENK3 Says:

    remember way back when, there were warnings about electronic voting and how the machines could be rigged. no one paid attention and look what is happening in a lot of states

    • Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

      Oh, yes, I remember very well. My home state of NC has had a BUNCH of problems, with votes disappearing, votes counting backwards, all kinds of crazy stuff. That’s why I am kinda glad that 70% of votes will be cast using paper and pencil – that at least eliminates the “calibration” issue, though still doesn’t address allowing people to vote without ID and stuff…

  7. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    Sharyl Attkisson was on Fox and Friends this morning. She is the ultimate whistleblower of this Administration, and CBS News, for that matter:

  8. HELENK3 Says:

    so if flyers showing the faces of whites killed by blacks would that be considered racist?

    • Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

      That is just disgusting. Absolutely disgusting. WOW.

      Oh, and no doubt, Helen – of course it would be. Ugh.

  9. HELENK3 Says:

    holders dept of crime fast and furious document dump on eve of election

    • Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

      So what does it say that my computer completely shut down when I tried to go to this article? Seriously – it came up for a second, and then my computer crashed. Hmm…

      And I am not one bit surprised that the DOJ waited until now. Just like the IRS waited until the day before the election to release that info abt Jeanne Shaheen.

  10. HELENK3 Says:

    guess this is how abortion wendy expects to win

  11. HELENK3 Says:

    important info
    cell phone numbers go public this month
    call this number for the do not call list

    • HELENK3 Says:


      today must be my day for scams. think I will turn off the computer and turn on the Roku

  12. HELENK3 Says:

    this seemed like a perfect just because for today

  13. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    Some big news from here in South Carolina: Senator Tim Scott has won his election, making him the first Black to be elected tot he senate since Reconstruction. And if I heard correctly, he is also the first Black to win in both the House and Senate. But even more than that, he has been a great Senator, and I expect that trend to continue with him.

    Lindsey Graham also won.

    And, Nikki Haley, our governor, won her re-election. She has brought in a ton of new jobs for the State, and has been very, very good. So, I am happy abt that!

  14. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    Charlotte is my home town, and Cannon’s behavior was an embarrassment at the time, and for him to pull this is ridiculous:

  15. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    A pickup for Republicans in West Virginia, and it’s a woman to boot:

  16. cindyindie Says:

    Cuzin—I’ve got the boys all by myself tonight, so can’t stay long..(David’s downtown where all of the local results are being counted)……but I wanted to say we are THRILLED about Sen. Tim Scott!!! OMG, I almost started crying when the election was called in his favor—–Y’all must be so proud and ecstatic!!!!

    And good luck to the rest of the Repubs tonight!~ It feels so good to be on the right side of the political stadium….I REALLY hope Mia Love and all of the the rest, esp women, WIN BIG!

    • Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

      Hey, Cuz! Please give the boys my love.

      Isn’t that just GREAT news abt Tim Scott? We are VERY happy that he was elected to this position. He is the real deal. Once he was appointed, he made it a point to go to every single county in the state. He also went undercover, doing things like riding the city bus in Charleston to keep his finger on the pulse of his constituent. Yep – he is a breath of fresh air!

      And it looks like Abbott is going to cruise too, right? Sure hope so!

      I hope Mia Love and Martha McSally both win, too. Fingers crossed!

  17. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    Tom Cotton has beaten Mark Pryor in AK, another upset.

  18. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    Another pickup – Mike Rounds has captured the SD seat Tim Johnson had:

  19. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    It’s official – Greg Abbott won the Texas Governor race over Wendy Davis, according to a Facebook friend in Texas. Here’s the link:

    Okay, folks – other updates are up to y’all. I’m a bit under the weather and am going to bed now. It’s all yours now!

    Oh, and congratulations, Cuz’n Cindy – Y’all will have a good man at the helm of the Lone Star State!

  20. HELENK3 Says:

    they just called NH for shaheen. guess it is ok with dems to work with the IRS and break the law. Maybe the country will get lucky and she will be doing the perp walk in the future

    • HELENK3 Says:

      hold on about NH. shaheen and brown now showing 50 – 50 and brown is not conceding

    • Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

      The thing is, the IRS let that information out SO late in the game – intentionally so, I think. I am sure many people knew nothing abt her role in the IRS and with Lois Lerner in NH. And, of course, people had already voted early. Not sure if that was enough to change the votes or not, but still – I have zero doubt it was intentional to wait until the last minute…

  21. piper Says:

    Scott Walker has won his 3rd election. Yipee

    • kenoshamarge Says:

      Walker Wins A great day for Wisconsin!

      • foxyladi14 Says:

        Amen Marge 😀

      • Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

        So, so happy abt Walker!! And again, it was not as close as they made it sound like it would be. In fact, most of these races they thought were going to be SO close were not at all. Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, and more were not close at all.

        Anyway, so glad Wisconsin re-elected Walker! WOOHOO!!!!

        • kenoshamarge Says:

          Read the Journal-Sentinel’s begrudging report of Walker’s win:

          Walker defeats Burke for 3rd victory in 4 years

          Republican Gov. Scott Walker defeated Democrat Mary Burke Tuesday, ensuring him a second term in Madison and raising the prospect of a political future at the national level.

          In his third statewide victory in four years, the Republican governor beat the former Trek Bicycle executive in a closely contested campaign that drew attention from around the country. Walker’s trio of victories in this pale blue state are already firing speculation about whether he will seek the GOP presidential nomination in 2016.

          The governor’s victory speech stoked those fires by focusing on the strengths of America as much as those of Wisconsin and by aiming his attacks at Washington, D.C. His ever-present foil from the campaign trail — the liberal city of Madison — was absent from the speech at State Fair Park in West Allis.

  22. kenoshamarge Says:

    Results thus far:

    Senate = GOP pick up 7 – Landrieu headed for runoff – Alaska results not in yet

    Governors = GOP picks up 3

    House = GOP picks up 12

  23. foxyladi14 Says:

    Prayers do get answered, Praise the Lord. 😀

  24. foxyladi14 Says:

    The GOP is not the party of Old White Men any more. 😀

  25. mcnorman Says:

    Someone told me that this was not really an election, but more of a restraining order. LOL

  26. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    Oh, this is just the icing on the cake:


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