Live By The Poll… ⭐ Open Thread ⭐

by

As Mitt Romney sadly found out, those that live by the poll(s) often die by the polls. Or are at least surprised when the poll is so very wrong.

An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals

November 3, 1948: President Harry S. Truman, shortly after being elected as President, smiles as he holds up a copy of the Chicago Tribune issue prematurely announcing his electoral defeat. This image has become iconic of the consequences of bad polling data.

Every day we are bombarded with the results of one poll or another. Some are reputable and may be worth our attention. Others? No.

Not worth our attention are the online polls so prevalent and so much touted by the winners of these hugely flawed polls. One such would be the Drudge poll. This one is so flawed by the swarming of alt-right Trumpanzees that it’s laughable. But the Trump campaign and it’s hugely flawed candidate are boasting about it. Not surprising in a man who boasts about so much. What is surprising is the number of gullible people that believe him and the polls. Many of whom were among the swarm.

If you want to find out how easy it is to create an online poll just search out “online polls” and in seconds you have information on how to create your own. Are you/we/me pollsters? Seeming so if it’s all that easy.

It isn’t that easy, or that cheap to create a real poll. One that is worth paying/giving some attention. I check the gallop poll and the RCP poll for myself. When some other reputable polls are presented I pay some attention. Some. I remember all too well that there were some reputable polls that showed Mitt Romney defeating Obama in 2012. Did they just poll people who were wishful thinkers? A lot of my trust in polls was defeated along with Mitt.

Polls often show a candidate getting a “bounce” after one event or happenstance or something. I enjoy picturing Hillary and Trump “bouncing”. Not in the polls, just bouncing on their fat butts. But then there are times when I am easily amused.

A5nQbFg.jpg

According to those that rate the polls:

The outcomes of both political and marketing polls — and whether or not the public trusts the results — are influenced by many factors, including polling technology, how the question is worded, the perception of who is asking the question, when and how the polling sample is drawn, and who agrees to take the poll (the responders) and who decides not to (the non-responders).

I have never been called to answer any poll and would happily offer my opinion. That’s because I tend to be opinionated. I would not agree to answer a poll on something with which I was unfamiliar or ignorant. Such as a new car. What I don’t know about new cars would fill the massive void in Donald Trump’s head or the enormous hole in what passes for Hillary Clinton’s integrity. But that’s just me. I know far too many people that never let their ignorance get in the way of their opinion.

By far the worst kinds of polls, according to experts, are the Internet polls or magazine surveys that appeal to only those with a vested interest in the question. “They are worthless, except for the purpose of idle entertainment.”

Don’t you love it when “experts” confirm your opinion?

Which presidential polls are the best? Here’s how to know which ones to trust

Donald Trump is closing the gap! Hillary Clinton is up by double-digits! Gary Johnson has almost qualified for the debates!

Individual polls make for flashy headlines. They draw clicks. They will not tell you who the next president will be. There are many polls, some of which are highly respected, tracking Trump vs. Clinton in 2016. But which polls accurately track the truth is tricky. And relying on even the most reputable poll, on its own, is never advisable.

The best way to follow who is winning the presidential election is to follow polling averages. These poll trackers weigh polls based on their historical accuracy and methodology, average them together and produce a far more reliable picture of the election.

This is why many people trust the RCP polls, because they are averages.

There are others that swear by the odds makers in Vegas. The idea is that they’re spending money and there fore to be trusted to make the best “guess” to make the most money. At least that’s the theory.

Whatever the results the fact is that we seem to have become addicted to polls. Being human we tend to like the polls that support our opinion or candidate and mistrust those that don’t. It’s human  and it’s also something many of the polls, especially the online junk polls count on.

We all have our opinions. At least most of us do. I’m always stunned by the “have no opinion” response to something, but then as I admitted, I tend to be opinionated.

Ta8gI8Q.jpg

Advertisements

25 Responses to “Live By The Poll… ⭐ Open Thread ⭐”

  1. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    What a timely post indeed, Marge! Thanks so much for this. I get so sick of hearing abt these polls, especially as one side or the other essentially uses them to declare the race a done deal. If only, and if only it was a done deal with other candidates running instead of THESE two…

    Great post!

    • kenoshamarge Says:

      I think we all noticed during the primaries that Trump likes to talk about the “polls”. At least when he’s up in them. Now the only polls where he dominates are the on-line ones where the Trumpanzees swarm like locusts.

  2. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    So it seems that Trump and his company violated the US Trade Embargo against Cuba. The statute of limitations has now run out on charging him, but not only did he do so, but shortly thereafter went to Miami to speak with a group of Cuban Americans abt how he would fight to keep the embargo in places as part of his Reform Presidential bid.

    One thing is certain – he is easily as crooked and duplicitous as Clinton and those who keep trying to tell themselves otherwise are just lying to themselves. Here’s the link to an extensive Newsweek article abt it: http://www.newsweek.com/2016/10/14/donald-trump-cuban-embargo-castro-violated-florida-504059.html

  3. kenoshamarge Says:

    Gary Varvel is another of the great cartoonists IMO. I like the way he draws a lot. Not to mention his message is almost always very clever.

    I think this one is particularly brilliant!

  4. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    We have seriously, seriously, lost the edge in this country: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/09/29/university-michigan-professors-instructed-to-stick-to-preferred-pronouns.html

  5. helenk3 Says:

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/09/liberals_say_numbers_1_2_12_13_and_18_are_racist.html

    these fools have too much time on their hands. maybe they should get off their dead rears and go do some outreach work in black communities

    • Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

      Are you kidding me with this?? People have just lost their MINDS in this country!!

    • kenoshamarge Says:

      I’m sure this makes perfect sense to the same kind of people that think all you have to do is say you are a woman and “Poof” there you are – a woman. Except your DNA says different and always will identify you are the gender you were born.

      The lunatics are truly in charge of the asylum.

  6. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    Today marks an inauspicious anniversary of an event of which I had not heard despite having studied the Holocaust. It is deplorable, and shows the depths to which people can sink. It is a prescient reminder that, with the level of anti-Semitism in this country and the world today, how guarded we must be to never allow anything like this to happen again: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/09/29/48-hours-33-771-jews-slaughtered-babi-yar/91258042/

    • piper Says:

      Sadly I did know about this massacre.

    • kenoshamarge Says:

      I did too. I was fascinated with World War Two, perhaps because my father was overseas when I was born. I read everything I could get my hands on including several Leon Uris books. I can’t remember if it was Exodus or one of the others that described Babi Yar. It was a horror we cannot contemplate and yet given the barbarity of ISIS there are some who would inflict this horror on our world today. We always think the horror is behind us and it never is.

  7. helenk3 Says:

    think this sums it up on the debates

    https://scontent-mia1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p320x320/14502703_1318332388206824_3685923807425572624_n.jpg?oh=2f287176f110419a5c46b7aa512ea569&oe=58AB5A43

    • kenoshamarge Says:

      I don’t think anyone had a doubt that Holt was in the tank for Hillary. Yet Dim Donnie said Holt did a fine job and was very fair. WTH?

      • piper Says:

        After watching most of the debate and listening to Trump’s blathering and arguing, I’m surprised that Lester Holt didn’t running screaming from the room.

        Donald has a difficult time staying on subject preferring to be insulting and demeaning. Perhaps due to lack of real subject knowledge or ADHD or bullying has worked for him in the past.

        • kenoshamarge Says:

          All Hillary had to do to win was poke his ego and his mouth took over. The less she said the better she did. He talked 65% of the time. Well perhaps talk isn’t the right word, babbled is more like it.

  8. kenoshamarge Says:

  9. piper Says:

    Excerpt from one os his rally speeches
    “Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, okay, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, okay, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you’re a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right — who would have thought?), but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.”
    Trump

  10. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    Once again Obama shows with whom he aligns himself. It is insulting to those who won at the Olympics, and insulting to the rest of the nation, that Obama invited these two “protesters”: http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2016/09/29/obama-olympics-event-suggests-support-national-anthem-dissers/

  11. helenk3 Says:

    http://www.weaselzippers.us/298488-u-s-to-cede-key-role-for-internet-tomorrow-night/
    US to cede key role for internet tomorrow night.
    Are we really dumb enough to trust the UN or and part of it not to do all they can to hurt the US with this?

  12. Rabble Rouser Reverend Amy Says:

    Let me make sure I understand – Trump, Clinton, and Johnson all agree on Merkel as their fave “world leader,” the woman who has allowed a massive number of unvetted refugees into her country who are creating mayhem left and right. That Merkel???? Wow: http://therightscoop.com/not-making-this-up-they-all-said-angela-merkel-was-their-favorite-world-leader

    • kenoshamarge Says:

      Well that beats Jill Stein who can’t name any world leader that has or ever held office.

      Jill Stein Can’t Name A Foreign Leader Either

      So much for Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein’s alleged intelligence. On Thursday, trying to siphon off support from Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, who on Wednesday had hilariously been unable to name a single foreign leader he admired, Stein attempted to mock him by naming her own set of foreign leaders.

      One problem: none of the politicians Stein named have ever led their countries.

      http://www.dailywire.com/news/9594/jill-stein-cant-name-foreign-leader-either-hank-berrien

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: